The most effective strategies to work in the currency market
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    Top Forex News

  • Top Forex News

    Top Forex News

Money Management

Money Management

Money ManagementThe technical part of your system discussed previously only solves half of the difficulty. The equally important and other half is represented by the money management element.
A very good money management technique gives the chance to you to be extremely lucrative with your system even if let us say, out of ten trades, five are losers. Of course, if you construct your system respecting all the rules above and the rules that will follow you will not be in this scenario, but if for any reason you should find yourself in it, right and strict money management rules will make you prosperous even in situations like this mentioned.

Money management system is the subsystem of the forex trading strategy which controls how much you risk when you get an entry signal from your forex trading strategy. One of the greatest cash management approaches used by many professional forex dealers is to always risk a fixed percentage of your equity (e.g. 3%) per location. By making use of this approach a trader reduces when he is losing the size of his trades and slowly increases the size of his trades while he is winning. Increasing the size of bets during a winning streak allows for a geometric increase of the dealer’s statement (also known as gain compounding). Reducing the size of bets during a losing streak minimizes the damage to the dealer’s equity.

Trading on forex enables to multiply your statement over time – or to make it grow geometrically. Geometric capital increase is created when the gains are reinvested into the trading which leads to increasingly larger positions being taken and, hence, to bigger profits and losses. The pace at which the account grows is controlled by the size of the gains and by their frequency (which should always be remembered by forex trading system developers). While the geometric equity growth can and should be smooth (i.e. consistent), some dealers attempt to hasten it by artificially inflating the size of their profits by risking very high percentages of their statement. Because the real sequence of the winning and the losing trades can never be predicted in advance, such practice results in very erratic trading operation (i.e. sharp equity changes). Among other things this practice betrays the dealer’s lack of confidence in his or her trading system’s long-term profit potential. As long as the trader is confident about his trading system he can risk small percentages (%1 to 3%) of his statement on every trade and just view the system recognize its potential. It should be noted that only the geometric capital increase permits to make regular profit withdrawals from an account (as a specific percentage of the equity) without seriously affecting a trading system’s money making skill. This contrasts sharply with the fixed-dollar-stake money management system (e.g. always risk $500 per trade) whose profits grow arithmetically and where each withdrawal from the account sets the system a fixed amount of profitable trades back in time.

Both proper money management and sound trading strategy are required for a smooth geometric capital development. The speed (i.e. “geometricity”) and the smoothness of the account’s development depend on how much you risk per trade (as set by the cash management system) and on the trading system’s truth and the return ratio parameters (trading system’s mathematical expectation). Apart from the controlling equity changes by establishing a fixed percentage of the capital to be risked on any commerce, cash management system can also reduce equity swings through diversification (dividing your risk capital among unrelated currency pairs/trading systems).

The 4 hours and daily trend

The 4 hours and daily trend

The 4 hours and daily trendA good trading system is the one that always takes into account the bigger picture. The bigger picture in forex is represented by the tendencies on the higher timeframes.
These trends control the price movement on the lower timeframes. You must always take into account the tendency on the daily chart, for yourself a system that trades on the 4h graphs if you design. You must always take into account the tendency on the 4h graph, if you trade on the 1h or 30minutes graphs.

For the trend on the daily chart you can use the 200 EMA discussed before. It means that the trend is up on the daily chart, if the pair is trading above the 200EMA on the daily chart. It means that the trend is down on the daily chart, if the pair trades below the 200EMA on the daily chart.
Therefore, any trades entered on the 4h graph according to your trading strategy should only be entered in line with the trend. This is the way by which you can prevent serious losses and achieve long-term success. Let me show you a trade setup on the 4h chart :

In the 4h chart above, a trade setup took place according to my trading system at that level where the trend changed from downtrend to uptrend on the 4h chart. I should have bought this pair at that circle in the graph. Well, you can plainly see that cost would have gone for a while in my favor just to retrace reaching my stop loss amount and back down after eating all my gains. Is the trading system not great? Because I am kept by it out of losing trades like this one the trading strategy is quite good. It always takes into account the trend. And the trend for that pair at that moment was:

Well, the trend was certainly down at the moment when I was supposed to enter the purchase order.
The price action for that pair at that instant was way below the 200EMA on the daily. You can see how cost just touched the 200 EMA on the daily chart and bounced back down like crazy to restart the downtrend. According to my trading strategy, I would have taken this trade only if the pair had been trading above the 200EMA on the daily chart. Because it always looks at the bigger picture my trading system kept me out of this losing trade, yours should do the same. When you get more experienced and you need to begin trading on a lower timeframe like the 1-hour or the 30 minutes the bigger picture in this case will always be the 4h craze. However, I do not urge the 4h timeframe trend to be grasped by you merely by looking at the 200 EMA. The moving average works the trend to be found by best on the daily chart, for the trend on the 4h chart in order to get the best effect possible out of your trading you will have to read the price activity. You must establish the tendency on the 4h graph by reading the price activity, the moving average is not that correct on this timeframe and it can lead you to losses. The smaller the timeframe, the less exact the 200 EMA becomes.

The Follow Price Action Trends trading system teaches you with great detail how to spot price action trends on the 4h graphs. In addition, the Day Trading Forex with Price Patterns trading system does a wonderful job teaching how to accurately establish the price activity tendency on the 4h graphs but with a different strategy.

200 EMA

200 EMA

200 EMAFrom my experience, this moving average is the only index that is worth incorporating in your trading system. It is the most significant moving average of them all, all professional and retail dealers keep an eye on it so cost tends to bounce when it touches it.

However, it is best to use it in your trading system as guidance, as a confirmation of what price activity tells you and not as a tool to base trading decisions on.
For example, if your system is designed for the 4h chart, you will need to read the price action on that chart to understand what the tendency is. After you do that and see that the present trend is up or down, you can then look at the 200 EMA on the same chart to apply and support your price activity reading. Let us say the price activity tendency on that chart is up. You have a confirmation of your price activity reading if that specific forex pair trades above the 200 EMA at that time on the same graph then.

You can check out the Commerce the Momentum novel for a whole trading system that uses this moving average along with some other strong concepts of trading to make 200 pips per week or more.
Let so you can better understand how price responds to it us see a graph with this moving average.

Trade without Technical Indicators

Trade without Technical Indicators

Trade without Technical IndicatorsNow that you have an idea of what would be best to include in your trading system you also must know what not to include in it. Do not use any technical indicators in your trading because they are completely unworthy, and they will lose you money in the long run.

A trade might be won by you today making use of them but that money will be surely lost all by you back and more by the end of the week. You should consider yourself very fortunate if in the course of a month you manage to break even by trading with indicators. All indicators are based on past price action, the macd, rsi, or stochastic are not leading indicators.

They are just leading you to losses. Being built of past price action they are all lagging behind the price. By design the past price action is followed by them consequently, even if the signs they give would be exact they are worthless because they come too late for you to capitalize on them.
Thing is remembered one by always : the indicator isn’t led by price, not the other way around. Do not be deceived when you do a test on your graphs and you see that using an index or a trading strategy with indicators would have made you thousands of pips. That is merely a trick. Real time trading has nothing to do with back testing. You will soon see that you are wasting your time and money, when you place that index to work in real time. Always remember that price tells the index what to do not vice versa. The greatest index is and always will be the price activity itself. You should focus only on reading and interpreting the price action moves and not overcomplicate your trading strategy with worthless indicators.

Price Patterns

price-patterns

Price patterns and candlestick patterns are also quite popular with the vast majority of dealers consequently, they too have a great rate of success.

Price patterns are used as signs that price is preparing for a move in a direction and candlestick patterns are used chiefly as a verification when entering a trade. If you need to learn in great detail about all of these above powerful trading tools and master them, you can take a look at the Trade the Price Action book that describes them very well with many chart illustrations and places them together in the form of an exceptionally powerful price action trading system. In conclusion, these are the things that you should include in your trading system because there are by far the most successful tools to deal the forex market. It is entirely up to you to determine if you join them all in your system or merely use some of them.

There where you will learn when working with them how to avoid making trading errors will be more about these powerful instruments in a later section.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement

Fibonacci ratios are another forex tool that works exceptionally well in the forex market.

Just pull up any graph and draw your Fibonacci levels from the beginning to the end of any large move in one way or another. You will see how many times these amounts act as powerful support and resistance zones where price bounces back to resume the preceding tendency.

In technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (generally a major peak and trough) on a stock chart and dividing the vertical space by the crucial Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%. Horizontal lines are used and drawn to identify potential support and resistance levels, once these levels are identified. We need to have a better understanding of the Fibonacci number series, why these ratios were selected before we can understand. (For a more in-depth discussion of this matter, see Fibonacci And The Golden Ratio.)

The Fibonacci sequence of numbers is as follows: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, etc. Each term in this sequence is simply the amount of the two preceding terms and sequence continues infinitely. One of the remarkable features of this numerical sequence is that each number is about 1.618 times greater than the previous number. This relationship between every number in the chain is the foundation of the common ratios used in retracement studies.

The crucial Fibonacci ratio of 61.8% – also referred to as “the golden ratio” or “the golden mean” – is found by dividing one number in the chain by the number that follows it. For example: 8/13 = 0.6153, and 55/89 = 0.6179. The 38.2% ratio is found by dividing one number in the chain by the number that is found two places to the right.

For example: 55/144 = 0.3819. The 23.6% ratio is found by dividing one number in the chain by the number that is three places to the right.

For example: 8/34 = 0.2352. For reasons that are cloudy, these ratios appear to play an important part in the stock market, only as they do in nature, and can be used to establish critical points that cause an asset’s price to turn.

The course of the earlier tendency is likely to continue once the cost of the asset has retraced to one of the ratios listed above. The following graph illustrates how Fibonacci retracement can be used. Discover as the support is approached by it how the price changes direction / resistance levels.

In addition to the ratios described above, many dealers also like making use of the 50% and 78.6% amounts. The 50% retracement level is not actually a Fibonacci ratio, but once it finishes a 50% retracement it is used because of the overwhelming tendency for an asset to continue in a particular way.

Support and Resistance

Support and Resistance

Support and resistance amounts are also a crucial element of the forex market; on them a large number of dealers out there highlights them on their graphs and base their trading decisions. Therefore, it is advisable when you determine how to assemble your trading system that you take them into account.

This post will try to clarify the complexity surrounding these concepts by focusing on the fundamentals of what dealers need to understand. You’ll learn that these terms are used by traders to refer to price levels on graphs that tend to act as barriers from preventing the cost of an asset from getting pushed in a particular way. At first the explanation and thought behind identifying these levels seems simple, but as you’ll find out, support and resistance can come in various forms and it is much more difficult to master than it first appears.

The Basics

Most experienced traders will be able to tell many stories about how certain price levels tend to prevent traders from pushing the cost of an underlying asset in a certain way. Resistance levels are also regarded as a ceiling because the market is prevented by these price levels from moving costs up, as you can see from the graph below.

We have as support price levels that are known, on the other side of the coin. This language refers to costs on a graph that tend to act as a floor by preventing the cost of an asset from being pushed down. The ability to identify a level of support can also coincide with a good buying opportunity because this is normally the place where market participants see good value and begin to push prices higher again, as you can see from the graph below.

Price trends

Price trends

You absolutely know what a tendency is and you know that you see them on your graphs over and over again.

When building your trading system the tendency is a core principle of the forex market or any market for that matter and should always be taken into account. It is always easier to trade with the tendency than against it. A trend signifies that the majority of dealers determined to push the cost in one direction. You must trade in line with it and always understand what that direction is. If you need to know everything there is to know about forex trends, how to see them by reading the price action, how to understand when the trend is changing without the aid of any technical indicators, you can check out the book Follow Price Action Trends that clarifies this in great detail, with many chart illustrations, and puts it together into a whole forex price action trading system that can give thousands of pips by trading these changes in trend.

Basic Trading System Components

Basic Trading System Components

With the Basic Trading System Components in mind, the next thing you should determine is what you will include in your trading system from the technical point of view to help as many trades as possible you win.

Determine what will be the core technical parts of your trading system. From my experience, I can tell you which are the tools that work best in forex trading, that have a great rate of success and they replicate over and over again with excellent results.

These are resistance and support amounts, price trends, Fibonacci ratios, price patterns and candlestick patterns. These are the things you should consider including in your system. They are the most popular things in the forex market so, they have the greatest rate of success.

Introduction to Trading Systems

Introduction to Trading Systems

You must first think about what is the trading style that suits you better, before you begin to assemble your trading system.

Do you need to sit in front of the computer the entire day closing and entering trades on the 5 minutes time frame or do you think that trading on a higher time frame will suit you better? better? My advice to you is very simple and clear: always seek to trade on the higher time frames.

It is easier to trade this way and it will make you much more money in the long term. It is best for you not to day trade until experience is gained by you, if you are a beginner in trading. High risk is carried by trading on small time frames due to short – term arbitrary moves that are nearly impossible to forecast. Not to say that trading this way makes you vulnerable against economic news events that come out multiple times per day and generally have a huge impact on the little time frames. Even after you get more experienced by trading successfully on the time frames and you think you are prepared to day trade, my advice is do not trade on any period smaller than the 30 minutes.

Moreover, when you do decide to day trade, consider it as a backup trading fashion, day trade only when there are no trade setups according to your system on the time frames. Always seek to trade on the higher time frame. Nevertheless, as I said before, if you are a beginner dealer, and you probably are, I strongly recommend that you develop your trading strategy around a higher time frame like the 4 hours or the daily. Forget about day trading for a while. Commerce on the 4h and assemble your trading system / daily charts until you begin to add to your account consistently.